Sunday, 20 May 2018
I do not want to be a fear-monger but have always operated from the assumption it's better to be more informed rather than yes. Why is it that the media is happy to scare people with stuff that could happen some time in the future but refuse to adequately inform people of actual dangers.
That is why I am posting what I think is a well-written piece on this by Hal Turner (whatever you think of him) along with other pieces that are going beyond the official warnings.
GOVERNMENT GPS SENSORS Indicate 2/3rds of ENTIRE Southern Flank of Hawaii BREAKING OFF !! Pacific-wide Mega-Tsunami Possible
18 May, 2018
For weeks, I have been feverishly trying to get Government GPS readings from satellite/GPS monitors on Hawaii, to find out what the scientific data actually proves about the ongoing eruption of the Kilauea volcano on Hawaii. I needed these irrefutable factual data sources to track a landmass called the "Hilina Slump" which is a large, unstable land area that could fall-off into the Pacific, causing a cataclysmic Tsunami for the US West Coast and elsewhere. Getting the government to turn over the data was like pulling teeth. They simply DID NOT WANT THIS DATA RELEASED.
LATE yesterday (conveniently on a Friday) and well after close-of-business, I "came into possession of" the factual government data. I won't say how.
Now I know why the feds didn't want this information out: It's NOT just the Hilina Slump in danger of falling off Hawaii, it's the the entire southeastern flank of the big island!
About 2/3rds (east-to-west) of the southern coast of the big island of Hawaii is BREAKING-OFF toward the Pacific Ocean; and it's not moving slowly anymore!
If this section of the island does break off and plunge into the Pacific in one fell swoop (because of the ongoing earthquakes and volcano eruption) the west coasts of the United States, Mexico, Central and even much of South America will be utterly destroyed from the beach to perhaps 16km inland!
If that takes place, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc . . . . GONE. Wiped out.
Below is official US Government Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) Sensor data, via the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, from Satellite/GPS stations operated by United States Geological Survey (USGS) /Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO), Stanford University, and the University of Hawaii thru satellites operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory via NASA.
Included in the story below are satellite images, GPS sensor maps, Sensor readings, and expertly interpreted charts showing the unimaginable cataclysm faced by Hawaii and potentially EVERYONE who lives along the west coast of North, Central, and possibly South America. Charts like this:
We all know from mass-media coverage that the Kilauea Volcano on the big island of Hawaii began suffering swarms of earthquakes at the end of April, and began spewing lava from "fissures" since then.
These lava flows have erupted in people's backyards, cracked or blocked streets and roads, enveloped some houses and cars (destroying them) and forced a couple thousand residents along Hawaii's southeast coast to evacuate. The fissures continue to spew lava, sometimes 400 feet into the air. Earthquakes continue to occur every few hours.
We know that this past week, Kilauea had an eruption, mostly steam and gas. We also know that this morning, Saturday, May 19, there was a sudden and dramatic increase in lava flows from fissures, with 100 yard wide "rivers" of lava now flowing on land in what is known as the "East Rift Zone." Here's a map to help you understand the layout:
For weeks, my web site and a small few others, have pointed out that a piece of land known as the "Hilina Slump" is a large and unstable land mass on the seaward side of the Kilauea volcano. Over the years, from various acts of the volcano, rain, and earthquakes, this large mass of land has become partially "detached" from the volcano. It is therefore a prime candidate for sliding-off into the nearby Pacific Ocean, and THAT is a major worry. Here's a map with the Hilina Slump in Yellow:
As the reports about the Hilina Slump became more widespread, a very significant DIS-INFORMATION campaign took place. People claiming they know "the facts" said "there's no way a piece of land that large will just slide into the sea." "This is fear-mongering" "This is fake news." and then they changed their tune a bit, saying "Even if it slides into the ocean, there can't be a Tsunami so big it would wipe out the US West Coast."
I was perplexed by these criticisms since all my stories cited third-party sources and facts, all of which were verifiable by anyone. Finally, ONE person told the truth when he said "You are wrecking our Tourism business here, stop talking about this."
So there I had it, in a nutshell: Keep quiet to keep the tourists coming . . . . even though it might KILL THEM! Now I also understand why the mass-media isn't saying much about this . . . tourist money.
Sorry, I won't be quiet. People have a right to know the truth. If they choose to do something once they have the truth, that's on them; at least they knew.
IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE
The Hawaiian Islands are home to the largest documented shoreline collapse in history, an ancient seaward landslide that sent rocks from the island of Oahu to sites more than 100 miles offshore. The avalanche of debris from the northeast shore of Oahu probably occurred between 1.5 and 3 million years ago, and it undoubtedly created one of the largest tsunamis in Earth's history, a wave large enough to inundate every coastline of the northern Pacific Ocean.
Today, geologists are saying that seismic and tectonic forces are creating the potential for a similar disaster on the southeast shore of the big island of Hawaii, near Kilauea volcano. The world's most active volcano, Kilauea is continually growing larger. At the same time, its seaward flank WAS moving toward the Pacific, at the rate of about 10 centimeters per year. Kilauea's movement takes several forms. Layers of lava and sediment atop the mountain are pulled down by the force of gravity. The entire mountain itself also moves slowly out to sea as magma derived from deep within the earth's mantle intrudes into the core of the volcano.
"From previous studies, we know that Kilauea is the site of an active landslide, the Hilina slump, which has moved in historic times," said Julia Morgan, assistant professor of Earth Science at Rice University in 2003. "We now recognize that Kilauea also experienced a catastrophic landslide in the past, possibly within 25,000-50,000 years, which is quite recent in geologic terms."
The 10-by-15 mile Hilina slump is now partially detached from the seaward flank of Kilauea, and a candidate for catastrophic collapse.
The Volcano is moving!
While there is no real consensus on why Hawaiian volcanoes move, the fact is that they do move. One of two things can happen when you apply enough force to move a volcano; neither is particularly good.
First, the volcano can move or slide fairly easily along its base. Generally the movement is relatively continuous, however a bit of sticking here and there can generate some rather large earthquakes. That's what we've had this week with Kilauea. Sticking, then earthquakes.
The structure that results from this type of movement is called a "slump." Generally, a large block of the volcano slides coherently and stretches the volcano. Because the block is lengthening, it must also get thinner. The result of this is a set of cuspate normal faults near the head of the slump. The blocks on the seaward side of the fault drop downward due to the fact that the moving block is thinner.
The Hilina slide on the southern side of Kilauea is an excellent example of a slump. The large "palis" or cliffs on the south side of Kilauea are the tops of the extensive fault system at the head of the Hilina slide. The faults downdrop blocks towards the coast over 2000 feet in places. The downdropped coastal side of the fault blocks are probably tilted back towards the rift zone, but have been filled in by numerous lava flows making them slope very gently (about 1 degree) towards the ocean.
During the 1990's, Kilauea was moving an average of about 10 cm a year seaward. This is a lot of movement for such a large object. This is a lot of ground to break and as you can imagine it results in some pretty large earthquakes. The last time that this appears to have happened was in 1868 and the result was the M8 Kau Earthquake.
Second, the volcano can get stuck and suddenly release, causing a massive earthquake and landslide. The Hilina Slump is said to be "the most rapidly moving tract of ground on Earth for its size." The Hilina Slump can move much faster.
At 4:48 AM, November 29, 1975, a 37-mile-wide section suddenly dropped 11½ feet and slid seaward 26 feet. The result was a magnitude-7.2 quake and a 48-foot-high tsunami around Hawaii. This was a minor movement of the slump.
If the entire 4,760-cubic-mile block broke off, (as some geologists who spoke with me today believe may take place) it would probably create a magnitude-9 quake and a tsunami 1,000-feet high.
All the coast-hugging cities of the Hawaiian Islands would be swept away. And LOOK OUT Australia, Japan, and California.
(SOURCE: Napier, A. Kam; "Landslide," Honolulu, p. 28, February 1997. Cr. H. DeKalb.)
GOVERNMENT SENSORS SHOW INCREASED MOVEMENT
Some of you might be saying "80 MM is nothing, it's only 3.1 inches and you would be correct. But that's 3.1 inches of a chunk of land that's 4,760-cubic-miles in size . . . . . equal to a slice of the entire state of Rhode Island! Once something THAT SIZE starts moving, God help anything in its way. Trouble is, there's nothing in it's way, except the Pacific Ocean which the chunk of land looks ready to plunge into!
This is AFTER a Magntidue 6.9 earthquake which slammed the East Rift on May 4. The graphic below, from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, shows the incredible movement of USGS GPS Sensors . . . . some of them moved miles out to sea when the quake hit. The Yellow Star represents the epicenter of the 6.9 quake and the red lines show the sensors got hurled into the ocean as huge chunks of the cliffs fell off during that quake! Take a look at the movement of the land/Sensors after the earthquake:
These GPS sensors PROVE the entire landmass is already moving toward the Pacific, with significant portions of it already having plunged well out to sea.
Worse, the US Geological Survey, analyzing its instruments from that 6.9 quake, show a Rectangle of new, destabilized, moving, earth:
Notice the date stamp on the bottom? May 5, one day after the 6.9 quake. This is current, relevant, important scientific data. It is irrefutable fact.
That's 2/3rds of the southern coast of Hawaii! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! THAT is now in motion. THAT is now the scope of potential collapse!
GOVERNMENT SENSOR DATA SHOWS THE EAST RIFT IS ROCKING ITSELF APART!
The Charts below are from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory and they show the Ultra-Rapid Sensor reports for the EAST RIFT via a Bore "Hole" in which they placed sensors. The sensors shoot back data every five minutes for plotting the actual sensor location. LOOK at the movement taking place of the East Rift -- the whole southeast flank of Hawaii is in almost CONSTANT back and forth motion ! ! The East Rift is rocking itself apart.
Explanation of Plots
Another Sensor is showing even worse movement. The KAEP sensor is located as shown on the map below:
It is recording movement of the entire southern flank,to the east, to the south and worse, DOWN . . . . toward the Pacific:
If this chunk of land falls-off Hawaii into the Pacific, and it LOOKS like it's leading up to exactly that, a whole slew of people in Hawaii are going to be killed by the Tsunami wave which sweeps 280 degrees around the islands. Anyone not at high ground of 1,000 feet or more, probably won't survive.
USGS TILT METERS SHOW WORSE
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) uses extremely sensitive and highly accurate electronic meters to monitor the "tilt" on and around volcanoes. Take a look at the actual Tilt Meter measurements for the Kilauea Volcano for the past two days:
Hawaii is not the only danger zone if this huge chunk of land breaks off. The West Coast of the USA, Mexico, Central and parts of South America will also be hit -- HARD.
Below is a graphic from a computer simulation showing wave heights - in METERS - in two hour intervals after such a collapse takes place. Please note that in the first circle, wave heights coming at the west coast of the United States are simulated at 62 METERS in height. That's two hundred and three FEET tall, traveling toward the US west coast at about five hundred miles per hour.
In the second ring, at four hours, the simulation shows the approaching waves to be down to 42 METERS. That's 138 FEET tall.
By the time the third ring begins smashing onto the west coast of North America, wave heights are somewhere between 42 and 30 METERS. That means a wave of water AT LEAST NINETY EIGHT FEET TALL smashing into San Diego, Los Angeles and other places on the west coast.
Tsunamis travel at jet speeds on the deep, open, ocean and have such small amplitudes that ships rarely notice them. Only when they reach shallow water as they approach land, do they slow down and reach monstrous sizes.
It is about 2500 miles from Hawaii to Los Angeles. Given that Tsunamis travel at about 500 MPH, the ten million people living in and around L.A. would have between four and five HOURS to evacuate the entire city once the Hilina Slump collapses into the ocean. How the hell do you evacuate ten million people in 4 to 5 hours?
And that's just Los Angeles. What about the other large cities on the west coast: San Diego? San Francisco?
DON'T PANIC --- PLAN
It is important for me to reiterate that the purpose of this report and the ones which preceded it, is to ALERT YOU to the POTENTIAL danger, so you HAVE A PLAN.
Don't panic, PLAN!
Bear in mind, THIS MAY NOT TAKE PLACE. The volcano might stop erupting and all might be well.
HOWEVER . . . . prudence dictates that we be rational adults and keep aware of the potential danger from this ongoing situation.
To that end, I implore you: Keep close watch on developments with the Hawaii eruption. IF YOU HEAR WORD THAT A SEA CLIFF COLLAPSE HAS OCCURRED, EVACUATE. Don't wait.
The longer you wait, the more people are going to find out what's taking place. PANIC will set in. Think about it: there are 10 million people in Los Angeles, 1.4 million in San Diego, 865,000 in San Francisco and 2.4 MILLION in Vancouver. They would have four hours to escape to 50 miles inland or be killed. If you wait, more and more of those millions of people will have already started fleeing -- and maybe panicking. The longer you wait, the more traffic and panicked people you'll have to deal with.
So keep alert, monitor the situation and have a plan for you and your family. If a collapse takes place, know in advance where you're going and how you're getting there.
In the meantime, I recommend you gas-up your car(s)/truck(s) and keep a full tank. No one knows IF this is going to take place and no one knows WHEN this is going to take place. You don't want to get rousted out of bed in the middle of the night being told to flee for your life, and find out you've got no gas in the car. Throw a bag with some snacks and water in the back too, so you and your family can munch while you're evacuating. Being prepared is simple, if you take a minute to do it in advance. If you wait until all hell breaks loose, things will not go well.
Good luck. At least now YOU know what the scientific facts are . . . because I wouldn't keep quiet for the Tourist Industry. The rest of the media seems content to shut up.
Hawaii. Rift Zone Fissures Merging. Get Out
5/19/2018 -- Hawaii Update -- Mauna Loa + Mauna Kea earthquakes -- Italy M4.2 as expected
From Hawaii News Now
PUNA, BIG ISLAND (HawaiiNewsNow) -
Powerful rivers of lava are threatening homes, roads and a highway in the lower Puna area where volcanic activity is steadily increasing.
Just before 7 p.m. Saturday, Civil Defense official say brush fires ignited by lava are forcing evacuations for residents along Kamaili Road on Hawaii Island.
Officials are going door-to-door to clear the area, and they are asking everyone to remain away.
Earlier in the afternoon, civil defense officials reported that at the current rate, lava could cross Highway 137 in as little as four to seven hours. Officials also said that the road may be closed at any time without notice.
Highway 137 is one of a few ways out of the area for residents in Lower Puna, the other route — Highway 130 — is currently only open to residents, and has already begun developing cracks.
The Highway closure would impact thousands of residents trying to get in or out of the lava-affected areas. Residents between Kamaili and Pohoiki are being advised to decide if they want to voluntarily leave the area, although they are not in immediate danger at this time.
There are now three shelters open on the Big Island for those who do choose to evacuate along with at least 1,700 other residents in the lower Puna area.
USGS scientists also announced on Saturday that fissures are now merging and connecting to other lava flows in the area. Fissures 16 and 20 have merged together and are producing a very voluminous line of spatter and lava fountaining.
The combined lava flow from fissure 20 advanced 1,000 feet in less than an hour early Saturday morning, and is traveling toward the coast at a rate of 300 yards per hour. The flow is now about about a mile and a half away from the coast.
On Friday, four people were airlifted to safety and at least four homes were destroyed in lower Puna on Friday and early Saturday as new fissures and older ones created lava flows, spit out towering lava fountains that lit up the night sky and set off thunderous gas explosions heard for miles around.
On Friday evening, civil defense officials said a fast-moving lava flow had crossed Pohoiki Road and was threatening an isolated area with at least 40 homes. Four people were subsequently airlifted out by county and National Guard helicopters, and four homes were destroyed.
Since the eruptions started more than two weeks ago, some 22 fissures have opened in lower Puna, claiming at least 44 structures in the Leilani Estates and Lanipuna Gardens subdivisions.
The eruptions took a particularly dangerous turn on Friday, with at least five separate fissures spitting out fresher, hotter lava from Kilauea's summit.
"With fresher, hotter magma, there's the potential that the lava flows can move with greater ease and therefore cover more area," said Janet Babb, USGS geologist, earlier in the day.
The incredible eruptive activity, which has been ramping up in recent days, comes as geologists say it remains unclear how long the eruptions will last.
Scientists have confirmed, though, that lava now spewing into lower Puna is new — from the quickly-emptying lava lake at Kilauea's summit crater some 20 miles away. The first eruptions into lower Puna were sending older lava from a 1955 flow into the community.
Residents, meanwhile, say the volcanic activity is taking a huge toll — day by day.
"It's been like hell," said resident Ikaika Marzo, who has been helping get much-needed information to those in lower Puna.
He described the sounds of lava in the area as 10 or 20 jets taking off at once and right in your backyard. "It's like huge grenades going off," he said. "It shakes the whole community."
The ongoing volcanic activity prompted civil defense authorities to urge extreme caution for anyone still in lava-ravaged areas.
"Leilani Estates evacuees must be alert to possible decreased availability of access," civil defense authorities said. "No access is allowed at his time for residents of Lanipuna Gardens due to high levels of dangerous volcanic gases."
And officials said while Highway 137 remains open, residents from Isaac Hale Beach Park to Kalapana should prepare for voluntary evacuation if the thoroughfare becomes threatened.
Meanwhile, authorities continue to closely monitor activity at Kilauea's summit crater, where an explosive eruption early Saturday spewed ash into the air.
They're urging residents across the Ka'u District and Puna to be prepared for rapid changes in air quality because of the potential for ashfall or higher concentrations of sulfur dioxide.
On Thursday, heavy vog across lower Puna forced school closures. But the return of winds Friday meant volcanic emissions weren't leading to high concentrations of sulfur dioxide.
Jim Kauahikaua, USGS geophysicist, said the amount of gas spewing from outbreaks in Leilani Estates and nearby Lanipuna Gardens is about the same as the amount that comes out of Halemaumau Crater. The difference? The crater isn't in the middle of residential communities.
"The thing to remember is this is putting out as much sulfur dioxide as Halemaumau does normally," he said.
Geologists are also monitoring widening cracks in a number of roadways in Leilani Estates, ground zero for the ongoing eruptions.
Steve Brantley, of the USGS, said the large cracks, which have torn roads apart in some places or created gaps of 1 yard or wider, are an indication that magma is continuing to enter the rift zone.
"The rift zone is being forced apart," he said. "I think clearly it points to the potential for additional eruptive activity" in lower Puna.
Marzo said he saw a crack on Nohea Street widen from about 3 feet on Thursday morning to about 10 feet wide later in the day. He also said that about 40 yards of the road sank.
"These cracks are definitely taking a toll on people getting to their homes," he said.
The developments underscore the scope of the disaster in the area, which has upended lives, destroyed homes and shows no signs of stopping.
In lower Puna, residents say the eruptions have turned their community into a "war zone."
"Everything is so uncertain. It's really nerve-wracking," said Debbie Kalaluhi, who can see the ongoing eruption of fissure no. 17 from her backyard. "You're very on edge. You have to really see it to believe it."
Mandatory evacuations remain in place for the Leilani Estates and Lanipuna Gardens subdivisions, home to about 2,000 people, but not everyone has heeded them and authorities haven't forced people to leave.
About 300 people are staying at three American Red Cross emergency shelters, while hundreds more residents are staying with friends and family.
Talmadge Magno, Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator, said Thursday that about 20 homes remain occupied in Leilani Estates — a fact that he expects will change as volcanic activity continues to cut off roads, gobble up utility lines and send toxic fumes into the air.
"Lava has a way of moving people," he said.
Meanwhile, authorities continue to urge thousands living elsewhere in Kilauea's east rift zone to be prepared to evacuate quickly.
A presidential disaster declaration has been issued for the ongoing Kilauea eruptions, which have changed the landscape of a Big Island community, destroying dozens of homes, covering roads and gobbling up utility lines.
Tina Neal, USGS scientist-in-charge at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, has said there's no's telling how long the eruptions will continue.
Authorities have compared the eruptions of Kilauea along the south rift zone to volcanic activity in February 1955, in which at least 24 separate volcanic vents opened up and lava covered about 3,900 acres.
Back then, coastal communities from Kalapana to Kapoho were evacuated and "sections of every public road to the coastline were buried by lava" before the eruption abruptly stopped in May 1955.
The last time lava threatened Puna was in 2014, when a flow closed roads for weeks in Pahoa, forced evacuations and claimed several structures, including one home.
This story will be updated.