Disputes
Over Small Islands Pose Big Conundrum for US
CNBC,
16
December, 2012
Far
away from the United States and usually far down the list of things
Washington worries about, the obscure islets at the center of bitter
spats between China and its neighbors have become a flashpoint that
could get hotter and embroil America.
This
week served up fresh evidence that 2013 likely will bring no pause in
tensions rippling the seas around China. Japan
on Thursday scrambled fighter jets after
a Chinese government plane entered what Japan considers its airspace
over disputed islets in the East China Sea, just one of many
contested sites.
Even
as conflicts in the Middle East dominate the U.S. government's
foreign policy concerns, the State Department believes that the
multilateral territorial dispute in the South China Sea is one of the
most difficult issues globally.
But
it has been relying largely on private diplomacy and broad statements
of principle rather than public arm-twisting to try to head off
potentially violent miscalculations over the disputes. Underscoring
this concern is the so-called pivot of U.S. attention to Asia, which
has involved more rhetoric and consultations than deployment of
American military force.
However,
hardly a week passes without incidents over fishing rights or oil
exploration activities, and Washington's approach, while it may have
helped avoid outright conflict, does not appear to be dissuading an
increasingly assertive China.
Recent
moves by Beijing "in part mean China has not been deterred by
the increased U.S. commitment," said M. Taylor Fravel, a scholar
at the MIT Security Studies Program.
China
has taken de facto control of the Scarborough Shoal, a reef that
falls inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and now
frequently challenges Japan's control of islands it calls the
Senkakus.
Many
analysts say intensifying Chinese pressure over the islands issue
since 2010 helped fuel the election victory on Sunday of hawkish
Japanese ex-premier Shinzo Abe. Abe's campaign included calls for a
tougher stance toward China.
The
United States is officially neutral on the sovereignty issues and has
urged diplomatic talks. It insists that all parties refrain from
force and do nothing to impede sea lanes that carry $5 trillion in
annual trade.
"These
are among the most difficult issues on the global scene and we
believe that we have played an appropriate role, oft times behind the
scenes, to encourage calm and the maintenance of peace and
stability," said Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the
U.S. point man on the issue.
Some
observers say they worry that Asian friends in Manila and Tokyo might
not get the full-throated support they have had from Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton and Campbell after those forceful figures in
Asia diplomacy leave their posts next year.
Another
lingering concern for 2013 is the deep U.S. defense cuts that could
kick in if the "fiscal cliff" tax and spending debate fails
to get sorted out. That could dent Asian allies' confidence in
American staying power or feed Chinese over-confidence.
Nervous
States Look to US
Washington
has longstanding security treaties with two of China's adversaries in
the dispute, Japan and the Philippines.
In
the case of Japan, Washington explicitly has said the islands Tokyo
administers and calls the Senkakus - and which China claims as the
Diaoyu islands - would be covered by their 1951 security treaty in
the event of attack.
The
Philippines has not received such U.S. assurances over its disputed
islets, but is getting American help improving its tiny navy in the
face of increased Chinese pressure.
After
talks this week in Manila, Filipino military chief General Jesse
Dellosa said he expects the U.S. Navy to increase ship visits in his
country next year. He said port calls and emergency repair stops at
the former Subic Bay U.S Naval base increased 30 percent in 2012
compared to last year.
China
is locked in increasingly angry disputes with the Philippines and
Vietnam over islets in the South China Sea whose surrounding waters
hold important fishing grounds and oil and gas reserves.
Former
U.S. foe Vietnam has also stepped up military contacts with
Washington.
"Lots
of states are nervous and they turn to the United States when they're
nervous," Fravel said.
Compounding
neighbors' alarm at the assertive Chinese stance on territorial
disputes - which also flared up briefly in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s
- is a recent period of China flexing increasing military might,
including the launch of its first aircraft carrier and the test
flights of stealth jet fighters.
China
often blames the U.S. Asia pivot for goading smaller countries to
join an anti-China "containment strategy" - a view many
analysts say is wide of the mark, given vast U.S.-China bilateral
trade, investment and exchanges.
But
Manila has been warned by experts and former U.S. officials visiting
the region - most recently former Pentagon number three official
Michle Flournoy last month in Australia - not to mistake American
engagement as a green light to take steps in the disputed waters that
provoke China.
Actual
U.S. troop and military hardware movements under the pivot have been
small so far, with region-wide force levels stable at some 80,000
troops, mostly in Japan and South Korea.
The
longer-term dilemma for the United States is avoiding conflict with
China while protecting the integrity of the global system in the face
of Chinese "salami tactics of taking little slices when it can,"
says James Holmes, a specialist on maritime strategy at the U.S.
Naval War College in Rhode Island.
"It
doesn't really make much difference to us who owns the Senkakus, let
alone the Scarborough Shoal," he said, adding that fighting
China over those rocks would be politically difficult to sell to a
war-weary U.S. public.
But
if China "wants to compel others to agree to the principle that
it can unilaterally modify the system, it can pick something that
nobody else has a real stake in defending, then it can come back and
pick something bigger and more ambitious."
Nationalistic
Dynamics
Admiral
Samuel Locklear III, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command told
reporters last week it was important to "ensure that all parties
remain calm about these things and that we don't unnecessarily
introduce war fighting apparatus into these decisions or into these
discussions."
But
many U.S. analysts worry about the dynamics of disputes with several
parties all facing nationalistic pressure to respond to perceived
challenges. Amid increased naval activities, poor communications
could lead to accidents at sea.
"The
fundamental tragedy of territorial disputes is that each country
believes its actions are purely defensive and just protecting their
claims and that the actions of opponents are offensive," said
Fravel.
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