The US economy

Fed makes new rate pledge, pumps cash into US economy

In an unprecedented step, the Federal Reserve said it would hold interest rates near zero until it hit the specific target of a 6.5 per cent US jobless rate, and it pledged to keep pumping more money into the economy.

SMH,

26 April, 2012

The central bank said its commitment to hold rates steady until its new threshold was reached would hold as long as inflation was projected to be no more than 2.5 per cent one or two years ahead and inflation expectations were contained.

The decision, accompanied by an announcement to replace a more-modest and expiring stimulus program with a fresh round of Treasury debt purchases, came as a surprise. Most economists had not expected the central bank to adopt thresholds to guide policy until sometime next year.

"The committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions," the Fed's policy-setting panel said in a statement.

Fed officials committed to monthly purchases of $US45 billion in Treasuries on top of the $US40 billion per month in mortgage-backed bonds they started buying in September, as financial markets had expected.

Under the "Operation Twist" program that will expire at the end of the month, the Fed was buying $US45 billion in longer-term Treasuries with proceeds from the sale of short-term debt. The new round of government bond-buying it announced on Wednesday will be funded by essentially creating new money, further expanding the Fed's $US2.8 trillion balance sheet.

Fed policymakers voted 11-1 to back the new plan. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker dissented, as he has at every meeting this year, expressing opposition both to the bond buying and the new economic thresholds.

Stocks added to earlier gains and long-term government bond prices fell on the Fed's announcement. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss the central bank's latest decision at a news conference at 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT).

"They see an anemic economy, and they're doing all they can to get any economic progress," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.

In its statement, the Fed noted unemployment remains elevated and that inflation is running somewhat below the central bank's 2 per cent objective.

Policymakers repeated a pledge to keep buying bonds until the labor market outlook improved substantially, although they said their long-term asset purchase program would end well before they raise rates.

A drop in the jobless rate to 7.7 per cent in November from 7.9 per cent in October was driven by workers exiting the labor force, and therefore did not come close to satisfying that condition.

Sweating a weak recovery

The Fed cut overnight rates to near zero in December 2008 and has bought about $US2.4 trillion in bonds in a further effort to push borrowing costs lower and spur a stronger recovery.

Despite the unconventional and aggressive efforts, US economic growth remains tepid. GDP grew at a 2.7 per cent annual rate in the third quarter, but it now appears to be slowing sharply. According to a Reuters poll published on Wednesday, economists expect the economy to expand at just a 1.2 per cent pace in the current quarter.

Businesses have hunkered down, fearful of a tightening of fiscal policy as politicians in Washington wrangle over ways to avoid a $US600 billion mix of spending reductions and expiring tax cuts set to take hold at the start of 2013.

Bernanke has warned that running over this "fiscal cliff" would lead the economy into a new recession.

By setting thresholds to guide its decision on when to eventually hike rates, the Fed was able to jettison a previous prediction that borrowing costs would remain at rock bottom levels until at least mid-2015.

Officials were uncomfortable giving guidance on monetary policy based on a calendar date, and are hopeful the new framework will help financial markets assess incoming economic data in a way that helps them correctly gauge the likely future stance of policy.

The prior policy of fixing an end point was criticized by some economists as sending a message that the Fed expected the economy to be weak until then.

In economic projections released in September, the Fed suggested the jobless rate would not fall to 6.5 per cent until late-2015.

Fed officials will release a new set of economic and interest rate projections at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) that could show yet another round of downward revisions to growth prospects.

Back in September, the Fed predicted the US economy would expand 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent in 2013, but even that modest rate is looking potentially rosy. The Reuters poll showed a median US growth estimate of 2.1 per cent for next year on the same fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis.

U.S. Rakes Up Nearly $300 Billion Deficit In First Two Months Of Fiscal 2013

Zero Hedge,

12 December, 2012

To paraphrase Tim Geinter: "Risk of the Fed ever ending its monetization? No risk of that." Why? Because as the FMS just reported, the February budget deficit was $172 billion, up $52 billion from a month ago, and $35 billion from a year ago. In brief: in the first two months of Fiscal 2013, the US accumulated a $292 billion budget deficit (compared to $236 billion a year ago), a number which is simply scary when annualized. What does this mean? That as long as the Treasury runs $1+ trillion budget deficit, the Fed will never, ever be allowed to stop monetizing, especially with China and the other legacy foreign borrowers just saying nein. Which in turn means that it will now be in the Fed's favor to paint the economy with uglier colors (recall that the Fed now needs unemployment deterioration to have infinite free monetization reign). Does this mean that going over the Cliff is now an absolute certainty.

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