Monday 17 December 2012

Update on cyclone Evan


This is huge for this part of the world. I will be keeping an eye on this and bringing you up-to-date

Cyclone Evan strikes Fiji: 'This is as serious as it gets'
Prime Minister John Key has pledged New Zealand's support for Fiji as a tropical cyclone batters the Pacific country.



17 December, 10.16 am NZT, 2012



Thousands of Fijians and up to 400 Kiwis are hunkering down in evacuation centres as Tropical Cyclone Evan sweeps near the Pacific Island nation.

WeatherWatch.co.nz said the centre of Evan had reached the northern island of Vanua Levu.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan said the powerful cyclone was just offshore but that meant the worst of the winds - which wrap around the centre - were roaring across populated places.

"This deadly tropical cyclone will be catastrophic for some communities and low lying islands. This is about as serious as it gets".

Key told TVNZ's Breakfast this morning that the Government was waiting to see what help was needed.

"Fiji, obviously we're bracing ourselves. But look, in the end New Zealand will need to give support. That support will come in a number of forms, I suspect money actually in parts, but in a number of areas."

Mr Key said a visit from Foreign Minister Murray McCully was a possibility.

In Samoa, where the damage was "a bit mixed", an Air Force P3 Orion was helping to undertake an aerial survey.

"There's some hope it might not be as bad as they originally thought, but then there's damage to other parts of the island that they didn't think had sustained damage," Mr Key said.

Fiji said it had mobilised emergency response teams, 300 disaster relief centres and the police and military.

It feared Evan could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993.

Low-lying areas were expected to be flooded, with storm surges threatening to completely cover some islands.

Tourists in Fiji's western outer islands, the Yasawas and Mamanucas, had moved to the main island of Viti Levu or returned home early.

Evacuation centres were last night activated in the Fijian province of Bua, on the west of Vanua Levu, the Fiji Times reported.

There were no reports of flooding last night but people were moving in to the centres in Nabouwalu and Nawaca villages for safety.

Strong winds were reported last night in Labasa and Savusavu, where one resident reported blackouts.

Yesterday a group of 10 students from Christchurch's Middleton Grange High School joined others camped out at Nadi International Airport.

Three were able to secure a flight home but the rest of the group were forced to check into a hotel to wait out the storm.

Linda Vanderpyl, whose daughter Lucy is part of the group still in Fiji, said she hadn't spoken to her daughter but understood they were in good spirits.

"They were on Bounty Island for a night, they took them off there ... I think they should be fine. I was pleased when they got off the smaller island.

"If it's as big as they say, it could be quite devastating ... the three [students] that took off are the most nervous of them, so they've got them safely home.''

Evan was likely to reach New Zealand by the weekend, Professor Jim Salinger, climate scientist and visiting professor at Stanford University, told Science Media Centre.

"By 1am on Sunday 23 December the American GFS weather forecasting model has the cyclone 500 km due north of Auckland, affecting Northland and drifting slowly south," he said.

The system would no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone, however it could still cause strong winds and heavy rainfall.

MetService said the ex-tropical cyclone may bring strong winds and rain to Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula from late on Friday. It said a warning is unlikely to be issued before Friday, but conditions may reach warning levels over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the Orion's search for eight fishermen missing from three boats off Samoa was due to resume this morning.

The Rescue Coordination Centre New Zealand (RCCNZ) said both the Orion and the French Navy had searched the coast and sea area south of Samoa yesterday, but there was no sign of the men.

Samoan authorities had advised that a hull spotted by the Orion on the island of Apolima had been there for some weeks, and was not one of targets of the current search.

The RCCNZ was awaiting information from the skipper of one of the missing vessels who reached the island of Monono.

A sighting of a hull floating 45km west of Monono was yet to be confirmed as one of the boats being sought.



INCREASED INTENSITY

The deadly storm, which yesterday increased intensity from category 3 to 4, was forecast to lie about 115km southwest of the Yasawas Islands and 185km north-northeast of Nadi about 6.30am, the Fiji Meteorological Service said.

Average winds in the centre of the cyclone were expected to reach 185kmh, with momentary gusts of 270kmh.

Four people have been confirmed dead and up to eight are missing after the cyclone struck Samoa on Thursday.

More than 400 New Zealanders had registered with the High Commission in Fiji, acting head of mission Phillip Taula told Radio New Zealand.

"The advice to any New Zealanders currently in Fiji is to follow any instructions issued by local authorities and to keep their family in New Zealand informed of their wellbeing," he said.

"We're encouraging any New Zealanders in Fiji to register with us."

New Zealanders in Fiji were asked to check the Government's safe travel website.

The military commissioner for northern Fiji, Lieutenant Colonel Ilai Moceica, imposed a curfew from 8pm to 6am, the Fiji Times reported.

According to Fiji Live, 2534 Fijians were in 31 evacuation centres overnight, and power was out in parts of Labasa, in the northern part of the island of Vanua Levu.

That included the Labasa Corrections Facility and the local barracks.

Government facilities were using back up power arrangements.

Fiji Live said 80 military personnel and 40 police were heading to the area ahead of the cyclone, and movement would be restricted today.

The cyclone has forced the cancellation of a number of Air Pacific and Qantas flights between Apia, Nadi and Auckland today.

A Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesman said New Zealanders in Fiji were advised to follow any instructions from local authorities, including any evacuation orders, and keep family in New Zealand informed.

People in travel accommodation should follow the guidance of the accommodation management and/or tour operators, he said.

New Zealand actress Nicole Thompson was holidaying on Denarau Island, and said so far this morning there had been "plenty of rain".

"The majority of the marina shops and restaurants began bunkering down last night when the island was extremely still. [It] was hard to think a cyclone was on its way yesterday as it was very eerie and quiet. All the large boats in the marina have left the port and head just out to park up their boats in the mangroves," she told herald.co.nz.

"We are meant to leave this afternoon to head back to Auckland but AirNZ has estimated our flight to be changed from this afternoon at 2.20pm to 4.30pm tomorrow. Flooding of the streets in Nadi is expected and after the devastating floods in March I hope all those lovely people in there are keeping safe."

A New Zealand journalist on holiday at The Hilton in Denarau, Marc Hinton, told Newstalk ZB people would be served breakfast at the hotel, but after that guests and staff were on strict instruction to take shelter and wait it out.

He said it was like the calm before the storm.

"The message has definitely gone out, the cyclone's on its way (and) will hit land here soon. So everyone's being encouraged to get provisions.

"We went through Nadi town, it was pretty much like a ghost town, everything was starting to be locked up, everything was being bolstered down that could be."

Mr Hinton said 95 per cent of the restaurants and shops in Nadi closed late yesterday afternoon.

The Fiji Government said it was working with the tourism industry to co-ordinate preparation and recovery efforts as the cyclone approaches.

"We are concerned about the capacity of this cyclone and have activated and mobilised our emergency response teams, disaster relief centers, police and military forces," Ministry of Public Enterprises, Communications, Civil Aviation & Tourism Permanent Secretary Elizabeth Powell said.

"The safety of our community and our international guests is our main concern, and we have established and stocked 300 emergency centres - should they be needed."

Meanwhile the search for eight fishermen missing from three boats off Samoa has resumed.

The Rescue Coordination Centre New Zealand (RCCNZ) said searches by the crew of a RNZAF P3 Orion and the French Navy failed to find any of the men.

The Orion reported a possible sighting of a hull floating 45km west of Monono but this has yet to be confirmed as one of the boats being targeted in the search.

The RCCNZ said it was awaiting information from the skipper of one of the missing vessels who reached the island of Monono.



Cyclone Evan roaring across Fiji



17 December, 2012


Severe tropical cyclone Evan is this morning slamming into Fiji with hurricane force winds, torrential rain and wild seas.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the centre of Evan now lies almost over the northern island of Vanua Levu.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the powerful cyclone is just offshore but that means the worst of the winds - which wrap around the centre - are now roaring across populated places. "This deadly tropical cyclone will be catastrophic for some communities and low lying islands. This is about as serious as it gets".

Evan is producing sustained winds of around 170km/h with gusts to 230km/h. However the damaging gales extend for 220kms from the centre "This means damaging wind gusts can and most likely will affect almost all of Fiji today".

"The centre of this cyclone is right now slamming into northern Fiji and over the next 12 to 24 hours will push very slowly across the rest of Fiji including Nadi".

This map shows exactly where Evan is located, just north west of Vanua Levu and now heading into the main island of Fiji.

The brown and purple indicate severely damaging hurricane force winds.

Image as of 7am Monday morning courtesy of weathermap.co.nz

Evan is tracking west south west which will take him closer to Nadi later today and into Tuesday.

"Evan is a very slow moving cyclone which greatly increases the risks of flooding and landslides. It also means relentless damaging waves which in some cases will be putting low lying islands entirely underwater right now" says Mr Duncan.

Evan could cause significant damage to island resorts in the Yasawa islands north west of Nadi where hurricane force winds coupled with a large storm surge could inundate some resorts and communities.


Cyclone Evan and New Zealand



WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say a week ago they gave a 20% chance of Evan reaching New Zealand, this morning Philip Duncan places that risk at around 60% as computer models for the second day in a row agree the most likely course for Cyclone Evan is towards the upper North Island - and some models have been picking this for a week now.

"We believe this tropical storm will drop south towards Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and East Cape this coming weekend. In what shape or form is yet to be worked out but even as an ex-tropical cyclone Evan could still bringing flooding rains and damaging wind gusts".

Mr Duncan says with so many people about to head away for Christmas it was important to get the message out. "We aren't going to be hit in the same way as Fiji is, but we can't rule out a day or two of severe weather for some parts of New Zealand this coming weekend as Evan likely moves down our way".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the models show Evan will be weakening before he reaches New Zealand and will most likely fizzle out around the nation. "Cyclone predictions for New Zealand are always very hard - look how narrow the top of New Zealand is - these storms can slide down either side like an egg on a roof".

Mr Duncan says people don't need to panic, but should just monitor the weather forecasts and latest weather news as cyclones and ex-cyclones can be fairly unpredictable.

Evan is helping to complicate the Christmas Day forecast for New Zealand. "If Evan wasn't in the picture I'd say Christmas Day will be settled for 90% of the country. Now we have a bit of a wild card".

WeatherWatch.co.nz has been updating New Zealanders on Evan's potential track for over a week now - and will continue updates each day this week.



Evacuations as Cyclone Evan hits Fiji



12.34 NZT

A powerful cyclone has crashed into the main tourist belt in Fiji, bringing powerful winds which are expected to be followed by heavy rain.

Have you been affected by Cyclone Evan in Fiji? Email your newstips, photos and videos to newstips@stuff.co.nz

Cyclone Evan, a category four storm on a five point scale, is now just north of the main populated island of Viti Levu.

The Fiji Electricity Authority has cut all power on the island, including to the capital Suva.

Wellington lawyer Janet Mason, who is in her Lautoka home, says the cyclone suddenly became very intense late this morning.

"It is extremely windy, and I can see nobody out in it," she said.

"I doubt if you could stand up in it anyway."

She said they could see trees coming down around them and the "howling wind" was tearing at their roof of their house.

"It has suddenly gone very dark."

This morning Fiji authorities issued urgent appeals for people near the coast to get to safety quickly, including in Nadi, home to the international airport.

They have also called for people to move back from the Coral Coast which is home to dozens of international hotels, resorts and guest houses.

The cyclone's journey over Fiji was expected to last into tonight and there are fears of very large sea swells with high tide due at 10pm.

Fiji's old capital Levuka was being pounded just after midday, while in the north Rakiraki has been cut off by heavy rain.

The bulk of the rain has yet to hit the Fiji highlands but when it does there are fears the major rivers would flood heavily.




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