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2012 warmest year in US? Odds rise to 99.7 percent
8
December, 2012
A
warm winter, a record warm spring, a record hot July and a warmer
than average autumn combined to make it even more likely that 2012
will go down as the warmest year in the contiguous United States on
record, the federal government reported Thursday.
Just
how likely?
"For
2012 not to be record warm, December would have to be unprecedented,"
Jake Crouch, a scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told
NBC News.
"December temperatures would need to be more than 1 degree F colder than the coldest December on record, which occurred in 1983."
"December temperatures would need to be more than 1 degree F colder than the coldest December on record, which occurred in 1983."
Based
on past numbers, he added, "the odds of that occurring are less
than 0.3 percent."
In
other words, he said, "2012 has a greater than 99.7 percent
chance of being record warm." That's up from Crouch's odds just
last month of 90 percent.
January-November
was already the warmest first 11 months of any year in records that
go back to 1895, according to data released Thursday by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the center.
The average national temperature through November was 57.1 degrees F.
The average national temperature through November was 57.1 degrees F.
The
year has had a string of warm events, Crouch noted. "We had our
fourth warmest winter (2011/2012) on record, our warmest spring, a
very hot summer with the hottest month on record for the nation (July
2012), and a warmer than average autumn," he said.
"The
warm winter and spring were associated with an unusually northern
track of the jet stream, which kept cold Arctic air out of the
contiguous United States," he added. "The early start to
spring was a precursor to the summer drought. The large size of the
summer drought was associated with a large area of the country
experiencing a very hot summer. Those conditions continued into much
of the fall season."
"When
you put these local and regional factors on top of a warming trend
for the contiguous United States and the globe," he said, "the
result has been the warmest year on record for the Lower 48."
If
2012 does go down as the warmest year on record in the U.S. it would
depose 1998, which averaged 54.3 degrees F.
Globally,
2012 is likely to be among the top 10 warmest on record, the U.N.
World Meteorological Organization said last month.
Snow-savvy
Midwest Cities Breaking No-snow Records
8
December, 2012
DES
MOINES, Iowa -- No snow boots needed in Milwaukee. Chicago commuters
aren't dodging knee-deep snow drifts frozen along city sidewalks. And
children in Des Moines are settling for ice shavings dumped from a
Zamboni.
Many
cities in the Midwest haven't seen any decent snow this season -- and
some are even setting records for the number of days without it, in
part because of a mild late winter and early spring and a slow start
to snowfall this season. On Thursday, Des Moines matched a record set
in 1889 when it hit its 277th consecutive day without measurable
snowfall, according to the National Weather Service. Iowa's capital
city is expecting clear skies Friday.
That
may not sit well with local youngsters, according to ice skating rink
manager Dave Roquet. He said that after he emptied the accumulated
ice from his Zamboni recently in downtown Des Moines, a group of
children ran straight for the man-made snow.
"The
kids just went crazy for it," he laughed. "They saw it, and
I think they hadn't seen snow in so long. They just started throwing
snowballs at each other."
In
Nebraska, Omaha recorded its 285th consecutive snowless day Wednesday
-- breaking its previous record set in 2006 -- and Lincoln extended
its new record on Thursday to 297 days without measurable snow.
Lincoln's former record was 295 snow-free days in 2004.
Chicago
and Milwaukee are just days away from breaking their records. Other
areas also are either setting or close to records, while some cities
are far off their usual snowfall totals.
But
fear not, white Christmas dreamers: Snow is coming, at least for some
people. Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce says that snow will
fall from the Dakotas to Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michgan
this weekend.
Florida-native
Patricia Dryden admits she doesn't mind the whiteless weather at her
home in suburban Des Moines.
"Two
years ago there was a snowstorm," she said. "Now it's
around 60 degrees. Selfishly, I'm happy."
National
Weather Service program manager Jim Keeney said the country's drought
conditions this year are to blame for snow not sticking to the
ground.
"At
this point it doesn't matter what falls from the sky, snow or rain,"
he said. "To get precipitation would be beneficial for a chunk
of the country."
He
also noted some cities that have seen snow are well below their
averages this time of year.
Minneapolis
usually has about 12 inches of snow on the ground by early December
-- but the measurement stands at less than an inch right now. Green
Bay, Wis., is five inches off its normal snowfall.
Data
shows Chicago will be just two days away Friday from breaking its
1994 record of 280 days without measurable snow. Milwaukee also will
be two days away from breaking its 1999 record of 279 consecutive
days without measurable snow, though there is a slight chance for
snow Friday night.
"The
warm winter and spring were associated with an unusually northern
track of the jet stream, which kept cold Arctic air out of the
contiguous United States," he added. "The early start to
spring was a precursor to the summer drought. The large size of the
summer drought was associated with a large area of the country
experiencing a very hot summer. Those conditions continued into much
of the fall season."
"When
you put these local and regional factors on top of a warming trend
for the contiguous United States and the globe," he said, "the
result has been the warmest year on record for the Lower 48."
If
2012 does go down as the warmest year on record in the U.S. it would
depose 1998, which averaged 54.3 degrees F.
Globally,
2012 is likely to be among the top 10 warmest on record, the U.N.
World Meteorological Organization said last month.
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