Europe: Fears of war in Spain, breakaway in Scotland and gas shortages

In Europe everything points to break-down and collapse. The Europeans are "worried" about gas supplies after extending sanctions to Gazprom. WTF do they expect?! 

It's a mad, bad world

My only (pedantic) issue is to point out that Goya was not alive at the time of the Spanish civil war of the 1930's, which opens the author up to the question - what else is he wrong about?

Martin Armstrong Warns "Spain Is Moving Towards Civil War"

Zero Hedge,

11 September, 2014

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,

*SPANISH GOVT SAYS 470,000 TO 520,000 DEMONSTRATORS IN BARCELONA

*BARCELONA POLICE SAY 1.8M PEOPLE AT PRO-INDEPENDENCE DEMO

The Spanish government is militarizing gearing up for violent protests against the EU that are expected to turn up before a hot autumn. Spain is now equipping the police with about one billion euros with new combat equipment. Violent protests in Spain since the crisis began almost a daily occurrence. Movements such as 25 de Mayo or the Indignados call Spaniards of all strata of the population to protest against the government on the streets. The police will always respond violently. They cover up their brutal responses by banning any video of police beatings making it a crime in itself. This is certainly illustrating the loss of freedom and any democratic process within Europe. The police scandals have only charged the atmosphere within the population and we may see this erupt into civil war as we move forward.

Goya’s painting of the brutal treatment of citizens during the Spanish Civil War is a reminder of what we could face in the aftermath of the militarization of Spain against its own citizens. 

Since June, the Spanish Interior Ministry has signed four contracts for the purchase of protective vests, shields and other riot gear. These weapon purchases are causing many to relive very bad memories in Spain. Spain has also bought water canons, a weapon that by the end of the Franco dictatorship was in continuous use. Opposition leader Antonio Trevin called the purchase therefore “a return to the times we would rather forget.” The Interior Ministry has responded merely justifying their rearming as necessary “because of the current social dynamics”, reports the Guardian.

The protests are mainly directed against the always new austerity measures, tax increases, the extremely high youth unemployment, homelessness following the bursting of the housing bubble, and also against a restrictive policy such as the recent bill to ban abortions. Then there is the movement to establish a referenda for the abolition of the monarchy.

Then throw in the separatist movement as we see in Scotland where the Catalans are moving for their independence. There were protests against the recent visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that had to be violently dispersed by the government.

Spain is moving toward civil war.

Even the human rights organization Amnesty International has expressed concern over the arming of the police. the police are there to protect the government – not the people. That is a dangerous position that sets the stage for civil war.

Everyone will be heaving a sigh of relief as the polls indicate a minor swing to the 'no' vote.

In the meantime the Bank of Scotland is threatening to move to England if Scotland votes to break away.

How The UK Would Look Like Without Scotland

Zero Hedge,

11 September, 2014

One quick look at the map of the UK shows the biggest impact a loss of Scotland would have on the Divided Kingdom (f/k/a UK) of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, should the "Yes" vote in the Scottish referendum garner a majority in one week:

In case it's not obvious, the answer is territory. For better or worse Scotland is blessed with one of the lowest population densities in the developed world, with its 5.3 million citizens living spread across almost 79,000 square kilometers. This represents some 32% of the U.K.’s current land. As the WSJ compares, with about 165,000 square kilometers of land, the new U.K. would come close to the size of Tunisia—while currently it is bigger than Romania or Belarus.

But how else would a Scottish departure impact the UK? Here are the answers courtesy of the WSJ:

Fewer people, but not that many fewer. For starters, the new U.K. would lose 8.4% of its population, going from 64.1 million people to 58.7 million people. How would that affect its international standing? Well not much. The country would only go down two levels in the ranking of most populated countries in the world, to 24^th from 22^nd—just behind Italy, according to World Bank statistics.

More crowded. People would live, on average, closer together: The new U.K. would host 355 people per square kilometer, compared to the current 263—it would become the 29^th most densely populated country in the world, up from the 44^th.

Fewer mountains. And not as high. Just like popular culture would guess, a big chunk of all this Scottish land is made up of mountains. According to The Database of British and Irish Hills, an online project that classifies all mountains in Britain and Ireland, 63% of all mountains in the U.K. are in Scotland. As the Scots would also keep the tallest ones—the tallest non-Scottish mountain, Snowdon in Wales, ranks 109^th—the new U.K. would lose in height: The average mountain would go from being 377 meters (1,237 ft) tall to 322 (1,057 ft).

More cars. Surprisingly, having more land to roam and steeper slopes to overcome doesn’t drive the Scots to buy more cars—the number of licensed vehicles person is smaller. Therefore, the new U.K. would have more automobiles per person.

Longer lives and fewer deaths. Life expectancy without the Scots would rise by a narrow 0.4 years for men and 0.3 years for women, but the mortality rate would be reduced by 1.7%. The reason is that Scotland has a very high mortality rate: 640 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to 539 in the current U.K. as a whole.

Fewer Jacks and more Olivers. If baby first names in 2013 are to be any indication, the U.K. without Scotland will make the name “Jack” less popular: The name “Oliver,” which currently ranks second to it, would have been the most popular in 2013 had the Scots been taken out of the picture. Top female names would remain the same.

Good-bye Union Flag? The one “Jack” that could be affected the most is the flag of the U.K.—the Union Jack. Without Scotland, the blue saltire or St. Andrew’s Cross could be removed from the pattern, although authorities have stated that the flag should not be affected even if the Scots were to leave the Union.

No more curling medals. As Scotland has its own national team in most disciplines, the U.K. would not be severely affected. One notable exception is curling: A Scottish creation, this sport has so far given the U.K. 20 medals. Nineteen of them were awarded to Scottish athletes—including the Bronze medals won by the women curlers this year at Sochi.

Fear over Russian gas switch-off sees EU states stockpile supplies

the Independent,

11 September, 2014

The European Union’s 28 member states have been stockpiling gas in record quantities as they prepare for the possibility that Russia may turn off the tap that provides a vital energy lifeline to the continent. And for the first time ever, Europe’s collective storage tanks are almost full – containing almost 80 billion cubic metres of gas – almost a fifth of the bloc’s yearly useage.

The EU is also drawing up contingency plans that would ban companies from selling tanker cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) outside Europe and order industry to stop using gas. LNG is produced by liquefying the gas to 1/600th of its original size.

Concern about a European energy crisis stems from the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and eastern Ukraine. This prompted Moscow to halt gas supplies to Ukraine in June and talks to settle the dispute have since broken down.

“There is something very nasty building and as long as Russia continues to use gas as an instrument in its broader dispute with Ukraine, Europe’s gas supplies will be under threat,” said John Lough, a Russian expert at the Chatham House think-tank.

“Russia uses energy strategy much more effectively than military power. The energy threat is much more powerful and much more dangerous. Russia understands that the world can’t find different sources of energy,” added Alexander Temerko, a Ukrainian-born energy consultant.

Nobody dares predict what will happen in the coming months. But with Russia’s dominance in European gas supply so absolute, the fallout from any significant curtailment will, at the very least, cause major shortages in Eastern Europe and send energy prices rocketing. Meanwhile, a full and prolonged embargo by Russia on gas exports to Europe would send social and economic shockwaves across Europe, experts warn.

Europe imports about a third of its gas from Moscow, of which about half flows through Ukraine. Ukraine has managed to keep its heating on since June by using its reserves, but as winter approaches supplies are running out and the country is starting to turn to Poland and Slovakia for supplies.

Reports claim Russian gas deliveries to Poland dropped by 45 per cent on Wednesday, the third day of decreases.

Russia has this week, by threatening to reduce exports to the EU, to prevent “reverse flows” to Ukraine, meaning Ukraine may be forced to siphon off gas flowing through the country to European destinations. Against this backdrop, analysts fear Russia could halt all supplies to and through the Ukraine as in 2006 and 2009.

Ukraine would be the most affected by Russia withholding gas supplies over the winter, with huge numbers of homes going unheated and industry becoming paralysed, said Mr Lough. Finland is the next most at-risk because it gets all of its gas from Russia and has no other supply options, while Poland, Turkey and Bulgaria are the next most exposed, according to a new report from Cologne University’s Institute of Energy Economics. The UK is among the least vulnerable countries. It gets only a small portion of gas from Russia, produces about half what it consumes from the North Sea, is well served by gas pipelines from Holland, Belgium and Norway and has the necessary infrastructure to import large quantities of LNG.

Although a full-scale Russian embargo on gas exports is still regarded as unlikely, experts agree that it could happen if the tit-for-tat sanctions battle between Russia and the EU continues to escalate. A gas embargo starting in November and running for several months would spell disaster for much of Europe, especially if it coincided with cold weather, the Institute of Energy Economics report warned.

This found that, if the embargo entered a fourth month and coincided with a week of “extreme cold” in February there would be “supply shortages in almost the entirety of Europe”. During that week, the UK faces a potential “shortfall” between gas demand and supply of between 10 and 25 per cent, while in Ireland, the figure is higher at 25-50 per cent, according to the Institute for Energy Economics.