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Unsettling
CO2 Spike: Hourly Levels Hit Near 404 PPM on January 13, 2015
14
January, 2015
Yesterday,
at about the same time I
was penning this article describing how CO2 levels were likely to
exceed 400 PPM for most of 2015, a rather significant and abrupt
CO2 spike was taking place at the Mauna Loa Observatory.
For
on the evening of January 13, 2015, CO2 levels suddenly rocketed to
nearly 404 parts per million.
The
sudden upswing was certainly unexpected and rather significant —
mimicking only the highest levels during 2014. These spikes came
fully four months ahead of typical atmospheric CO2 peaks and seem
rather ominous in the graph.
CO2
levels can be variable in the hourly measure. But this inflection was
particularly strong — following a very high daily reading of 401.23
PPM on the 12th. Somewhat odd and rather early CO2 increases for
2015. A trend we will have to continue to watch.
Links:
Dangerously
Beyond 350: CO2 to Remain Above 400 PPM For Most of 2015
13
January, 2015
For
2015, CO2 levels will remain above the dangerous 400 parts per
million level for almost 2/3 of the year. A perilous new record for a
human-warmed world.
The
last time global CO2 levels averaged above 400 parts per million was
more than 3 million years ago during the Pliocene. A period that was
just beginning to see the dawn of humankind (Australopithecus emerged
about 2.5 million years ago). It was a world of 25-75 foot higher
seas. A world where much of Greenland and West Antarctica was ice
free. A world that took hundreds of thousands of years to settle into
its climate patterns.
(A bad start of 2015 — CO2 levels on January 1st exceeded 400 PPM. Most of the year will see levels in excess of this dangerously high atmospheric value. Image source: The Keeling Curve.)
But
the current human tool-using species that is now warming the Earth so
drastically would have to wait for about 2.8 million more years and
for far cooler climes to develop. And that species would set
conditions for a rapid shift to climate states not seen for 3 million
years in just decades through a hellish pace of fossil fuel burning.
For in just one century we’ve propelled ourselves back to that deep
time. Back to a world climate state that is entirely alien to what
we, and so many other animals, are accustomed to.
For
this year, human fossil fuel emissions will push 2015 to reach or
exceed those 400 ppm levels for around 7-8 months running. By 2016,
it’s possible that 300 part per million levels — the ones that
dominated our environment for most of the 20th Century — will be
little more than a melancholy memory as humans face off against a
series of increasingly dangerous geophysical changes.
All
set off by the inexorable burning of fossil fuels. A malpractice that
simply must top.
An
All Too Steep Ramp-up Toward The Hothouse
Current
human fossil fuel burning coupled with a few, still somewhat
contained, environmental carbon feedbacks are enough to push an
annual atmospheric CO2 increase of 2.2 parts per million each year.
It’s a pace of initial greenhouse gas heat forcing never before
seen in all of Earth’s geological past — even during the greatest
global hothouse extinction events. The fruits
of dumping 36 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each and every
year.
(Rate of carbon emission at more than 30 billion tons of CO2 each year vs the PETM [Note that WeatherUnderground has erroneously labeled CO2 as Carbon in the graph]– which was the most recent hothouse extinction 55 million years ago. It’s enough to push an atmospheric temperature rise on the scale of a mass extinction over the course of decades rather than millenia. It’s also worth noting that with CO2 emissions at 36 gigatons in 2013 [vs the above graph results from 2010] and CO2e emissions just shy of 50 gigatons this trajectory is even steeper than the graph depicts. Image source: WeatherUnderground.)
As
a result, if current rates of burning continue or increase, we will
see 450 parts per million levels well exceeded within about two
decades. And that threshold will undeniably lock in at least 2 C
worth of warming together with a growing carbon feedback from the
Earth System itself.
484
PPM CO2e For 2015
But
this drastic pace of atmospheric greenhouse gas additions doesn’t
tell the whole story. For if you add up all the other gasses humans
have dumped into the atmosphere, all the methane and HCFs, all the
industrial chemicals, you end up with a CO2 equivalent number (CO2e)
far greater than the present CO2 measure. And that CO2e measure is
set to hit 484 parts per million this year (With a nearly 50 gigaton
annual increase in CO2e gasses each year). A level that, if it
correlates with past climates, will push warming by 1.9 C this
century and 3.8 C after the entire Earth System responds. A level not
seen in at least 13 million years.
A
rather terrible situation to say the least. For at these levels, even
the great ice sheets of Antarctica proper were much reduced and sea
levels were 85-120 feet higher than they are today. And continuing to
burn begs the very worst hothouse extinction consequences that come
from wrecking the world’s oceans.
Very
Hard Work to Get Back to 350 PPM
Near
the end of the first decade of the 21st Century Dr. James Hansen,
former head of GISS at NASA advised the world community that the
likely safe level of global CO2 was below 350 parts per million. This
assertion flew in the face of some in the international community who
were pushing for an established ‘safe’ level of 450 parts per
million and below. A level, of course, which would allow for the
burning of quite a bit more of the world’s fossil fuel reserves.
But
Hansen wouldn’t compromise. He felt it would be a betrayal to
future generations. To his grandchildren. To all our grandchildren.
So he set the safe limit at 350 parts per million with the caveat
that we may need to reduce it further.
In
2008, during the year Hansen set the 350 parts per million level, CO2
levels peaked at around 386 parts per million. For 2015, just 7 years
later, levels will peak at around 404 parts per million. A rampant
increase directly in the wrong direction.
In
order for rates of CO2 increase to begin to taper off, the world
simply must stop burning so much in the way of fossil fuels. And even
a full cessation of fossil fuel use would still result in some
emissions unless both farming and construction were altered to reduce
carbon emissions. Beyond this, atmospheric carbon capture through
various methods to include fixing carbon capture and storage
facilities to biomass generation and other land use and chemical
based techniques are the most likely to be effective.
Such
a transition and change is as difficult as it is necessary. For the
world as we know it simply cannot continue along its current path.
Hansen was right and we should have listened 7 years ago. We should
have listened in 1988 at his first major climate hearing. But we
didn’t. And so valuable time was wasted.
Let’s
not make the same mistake in 2015.
Links:
Scientific
Hat Tip to Dr. James Hansen and Dr. Ralph Keeling
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