Wednesday 8 July 2015

Merkel Mocks Greece And The Referendum: There Is Money, But The Deal Is Much Harsher Now (And No Debt Haircut)

Please forgive the formatting. If I try to move text in one direction it jumps in the other and it takes several attempts to 'copy and paste'. Between this and the security organs f...king round with my internet connection I'm pretty frustrated!
 

The Greek crisis

I have been trying to follow the ongoing saga of Greece without access to the internet.
 
What has impressed me is how the western media contradicts itself at every turn. Official outlets, like the BBC or Deutsche Welle spout the official EU line - in other words, lies from beginning to end.
 
The Guardian has, surprisingly, been a reasonably good source in the midst of what we  could with all fairness call the fog of war.
 
The situation I got was that:
 
There are huge differences between Brussels, Bonn and northern Europe on the one hand, and France, Italy and Spain on the others.
 
The United States is following the recent IMF report in saying that the loans are unpayable and is pushing for some debt forgiveness
 
It seems from the information that I have that the main concern in Athens is a coup and that Tsipras has been successful in getting some cross-party support for his line of negotiation, even with the right- wing.
 
Merkel and Brussels are playing hard ball with Athens and mocking them with the lie that Athens has come without a proposal.  This is a total lie.

I suggest Paul Mason from Channel 4 News in Britain, who is running a blog on this as one of the best sources of reliable information that is close to Greek sources.

The most recent broadcast comes first
 

 
















At this point it is unclear who wants Grexit more: the ECB or Greece.

With today's Eurogroup conference called explicitly to discuss a "new" Greek proposal moments ago we learned that the Greek delegation arrived at a meeting of finance ministers without a fresh proposal to secure its place in the eurozone. As a reminder, according to the FT, this was Greece's "final chance to present a new reform plan to its eurozone partners" even though their willingness to accommodate it has all but evaporated following Greece’s emphatic rejection of previous bailout terms in Sunday’s referendum.

So what is Greece's plan? Reuters reports that "Greece will submit a new aid proposal to European creditors "maybe" on Wednesday, a senior eurozone official said, with Athens' European partners convening in Brussels for emergency talks. "They say they will submit a new request and outline of proposals maybe tomorrow."

In other words, the bluffing past the deadline tactics adopted by Varoufakis remain. The question is whether Greece has any time left at this point. As a reminder, yesterday we reported that according to a Balyasny managing direct, "We now have another 48 hours of calm before things really start happening", adding that the "situation could then break down as banks stay closed, ATMs will run out of cash Tuesday or Wednesday, uncertainty grows and rioting possible."


So even if Greece cobbles some last minute deal together, one which will likely be prohibitive and have even more adverse terms resulting in public anger,

Obama Calls Merkel, Reinforces IMF Case Of Debt Haircut

       

Merkel Mocks Greece And The Referendum: There Is Money, But The Deal IsMuch Harsher Now (And No Debt Haircut)


 



Another day came and went with no breakthrough in negotiations between Athens and Brussels as new Greek FinMin Euclid Tsakalotos reportedly showed up to Tuesday's Eurogroup with nothing to discuss. 

With the ECB tightening the screws on Greek banks and the German finance ministry as well as German lawmakers tightening the screws on Angela Merkel, the Chancellor is drawing a hard line toward the Greeks in the face of calls for debt writedowns from the IMF, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and the Greek people. 


  • MERKEL SAYS IF GREEK REFORM PROPOSALS ARE SATISFACTORY AND PRIOR  ACTIONS TAKEN, SHORT-TERM FINANCE CAN BE PROVIDED: RTRS
  • MERKEL SAYS SHORT-TERM GREEK FIX HINGES ON LONG-TERM PROPOSALS
  • MERKEL SAYS GREECE NEEDS MULTI-YEAR PROGRAM 
  • MERKEL: GREEK PROPOSALS HAVE TO GO BEYOND WHAT BAILOUT INSTITUTIONS DEMANDED BEFORE REFERENDUM
  • MERKEL SAYS GREECE WILL NEED STRONGER MEASURES TO PLUG FINANCING GAP BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC DETERIORATION
  • MERKEL: EU TO DEAL WITH GREEK DEBT BURDEN AT END OF PROCESS
  • MERKEL SAYS EURO LEADERS DIDN'T DISCUSS AID PACKAGE SIZE
  • MERKEL SAYS SHE ISN'T 'ESPECIALLY OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT GREECE
  • MERKEL RULES OUT DEBT 'HAIRCUT'
  • MERKEL SAYS ECB BRIEFING SIGNALED GREECE NEEDS SUNDAY DECISION

More from Reuters: 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday she hoped to have sufficient reform proposals from Greece this week to be able to ask the German parliament to approve negotiations on a new long-term aid programme for Athens.

 

She said all 28 European Union leaders would meet next Sunday to discuss support for Greece provided Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras put forward detailed reform proposals along with a loan request by Thursday that were considered satisfactory.

 

If the reform list was adequate and Greece took some prior actions to enact first measures, Merkel said she was sure that short-term finance could be provided to help Athens over its immediate funding needs.

In other words, Merkel just told the Greeks yes, there is some money, but forget debt haircut, and the new deal is far harsher than what was on the table because the Greek economy is now imploding. Also, the deal will be 2-3 years at least to start, so even more austerity is on the table. So to all those who voted "Oxi", if you want your deposits unlocked well... tough.

The headlines keep coming hot and heavy, in which we find that Europe now thinks it is Greece's god:

  • MALTA'S MUSCAT SAYS `SUNDAY IS JUDGMENT DAY'

As Bloomberg reports, "Sunday now looms as the climax of a five-year battle to contain Greece’s debts, potentially splintering a currency that was meant to be irreversible and throwing more than a half-century of economic and political integration into reverse. “We have a Grexit scenario prepared in detail,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said, using the shorthand for expulsion from the now 19-nation currency area.

And just so it is clear who is calling the shots, here is Juncker explaining:

  • JUNCKER: LAST MOMENT FOR GREEK GOVT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING

What happens then?

"Our inability to find agreement may lead to the bankruptcy of Greece and the insolvency of its banking system,” European Union President Donald Tusk said. “If someone has any illusions that it will not be so, they are naive."

And just in case Greece decides to disobey, Europe is ready to treat Greece as an African nation:

  • JUNCKER: EU COMMISSION HAS HUMANITARIAN PLAN FOR GREECE IF NEED

The only good news for Greece, which was just clearly reduced to a vassal nation

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