This
is the truth of what we are up against.
I
don’t believe Grosser is under any pressure – I believe he’d
sign the agreement tomorrow if that was the way things were going.
Groser
under pressure to cave on TPP
Japan,
Canada and US are united in pushing NZ to ditch its demands for
better dairy export access to their protected markets.
Fran
O’Sullivan
"Tim
Groser has (so far) resisted megaphone diplomacy. Photo / File
15
August, 2015
Tim
Groser has been spruiking an interesting new line within senior
business circles about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) being the
"mother of all diversification".
Groser
is coming under what he labels "intense pressure" to cave
in on New Zealand's demands for better access for dairy exports to
three heavily protected markets - Japan, Canada - and to a lesser
extent the United States - so negotiators from all 12 TPP nations can
quickly nail a deal.
In
New Zealand - as was apparent with CEO responses to the
2015 HeraldMood
of the Boardroom survey - business concern is strong that moves to
diversify the economy should be accelerated to offset the dairy slump
and a potential over-reliance on the slowing China market.
Groser
reckons the CEOs are off-key: The services sector is a major driver
for the New Zealand economy with, for instance, the drop in the
exchange rate acting as a drawcard for more tourists. The
over-reliance on the China market, which (to a degree) was sparked by
the ground-breaking 2008 bilateral free trade agreement, will
naturally reduce if the TPP is signed, giving NZ greater access to
major markets such as Japan.
Hence
the ability for Kiwi exporters to more adequately spread risk through
increasing their exports to major markets such as Mexico, Japan, and
the United States under more favourable conditions.
That
may be so. But to run that line successfully, New Zealand needs the
TPP deal to be signed off.
Right
now it looks as if Japan, Canada and the US have ganged up on New
Zealand with some advance blame-storming singling out Groser in
particular as the potential fall guy if agreement is not reached
within the separate conversations that have been taking place on the
remaining sticking points: cars and dairy.
Another
sticking point - biologics - has now been solved, according to
informed sources.
The
big country gang-up - which is implied through news reports out of
Japan and Canada and (more obliquely) through trade journals with
strong access to the US Trade Representative's officials and major
business and agricultural lobbies - must be strongly contested.
In
Australia - where Trade Minister Andrew Robb is not averse to some
full-on sledging in that country's interests - the rhetoric has been
strongly in favour of getting Australia's negotiating lines
fulfilled.
But
Groser (so far) has resisted megaphone diplomacy. Pity. As there is a
lot to trumpet on where NZ's negotiating lines are falling.
In
Parliament this week, Groser took the battle to the anti-free trade
bogeymen. He made it clear that the Government is not signing up to a
TPP deal which includes an investor-state dispute settlement
provision that does not protect the right of future Governments to
regulate in the public interest. Nor will it sign a deal that allows
non-transparent and unfair procedures to apply, or one that would
encourage "frivolous claims by foreign corporations that would
have no merit in the legal sense".
He
also made the point to NBR that a TPP deal will create new
opportunities for New Zealand services exporters, including the
rapidly expanding ICT sector which already generates nearly $1
billion in exports: "It will help make it easier for online
entrepreneurs to do business across borders by reducing barriers that
require exporters to invest offshore in order to do business, and by
making it easier to transfer information around the TPP region."
In other forums Groser has dismissed concerns that NZ software and
ICT entrepreneurs will find their ability to do business constrained
by US-style IP protections.
So
back to dairy. It is clear Groser reckons the Japanese and Canadians
leaked NZ's position on dairy to fuel domestic concerns and help
advance their own positions when talks resume. The point is that
Japan, Canada and the US through their media advance their bottom
lines.
In
Australia, Robb acknowledged that multi-party agreements are hard:
"Yet, with no WTO deal in two decades, in the modern era, as a
country you've got to row your own boat in cutting bilateral trade
deals, or risk your economy missing coming waves of growth. Waves can
be caught, or if you leave your run too late, you can miss the cut."
It
is time for Groser - and also John Key - to advance the arguments
clearly and grab the news agenda instead of leaving it to the
megaphones of the TPP protesters.
Tim Groser expects TPP talks to resume in Kuala Lumpur
Trade
Negotiations Minister Tim Groser expects to resume bilateral
negotiations towards the Trans Pacific Partnership in two weeks in
Kuala Lumpur, and talks have continued since the last ministerial
meeting in Maui, Hawaii.
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